On a tense spring night in South Asia, the skies lit up with missiles, drones, and supersonic jets as India executed a powerful series of airstrikes against Pakistan. Dubbed Operation Sudarshan, the strike targeted multiple suspected terrorist camps and military facilities across the Line of Control and deep within Pakistani territory.
The fallout was immediate: Pakistan condemned the strikes as an act of aggression and vowed to retaliate, while India called it a necessary step in defending its sovereignty. With both nations being nuclear-armed rivals, the world watched with bated breath.
What does this escalation mean for India, Pakistan, and the global community? In this in-depth article, we explore what happened, the motivations behind the move, and what military and geopolitical experts predict could happen next.
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The Airstrikes: What Happened
The Operation in Detail
India’s airstrikes, carried out just after midnight, involved over a dozen aircraft from the Indian Air Force, including Rafale, Su-30 MKI, and Mirage 2000 fighters. Supported by drones and precision-guided munitions, the operation reportedly lasted only 18 minutes but was meticulously coordinated.
Targets included:
- Alleged terrorist training camps
- Ammunition depots
- Radar installations near Muzaffarabad, Chakothi, and Balakot
- Command and control centers used by militant groups
Initial Indian military briefings described the mission as a “clean hit”, with “no civilian casualties” and “complete surprise.”
Pakistan’s Response
Pakistan disputed India’s version of events, calling the strike a “blatant violation of sovereignty” and reported civilian casualties in the affected areas. Pakistani jets scrambled in response, and ground troops were put on high alert. Within 24 hours, Islamabad carried out “Operation Retort”, claiming it had struck back across the LoC.
The tit-for-tat exchange, while expected, immediately triggered fears of a broader military conflict.
What Triggered the Escalation
The catalyst for India’s decision appears to have been a suicide bombing that killed over 40 Indian paramilitary troops in Pulwama, Kashmir, weeks earlier. The bombing, which shocked the nation, was claimed by the terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)—an outfit believed by India to be operating freely within Pakistan’s borders.
While Pakistan denied any involvement, Indian intelligence reportedly intercepted communications suggesting ongoing coordination between JeM handlers and local operatives. Public pressure mounted in India, with many demanding decisive action.
The strikes were therefore seen as not only retaliatory but also preventive—an attempt to disrupt future attacks.
Strategic Significance: Why Now?
Experts point to multiple reasons for India’s decision to strike at this moment:
Political Timing
With national elections around the corner, the Indian leadership may have felt compelled to appear strong on defense. In the past, similar escalations have influenced voter sentiment.
Military Confidence
India’s growing technological prowess and recent arms acquisitions, including Rafale jets and precision missile systems, gave its military greater confidence in executing such cross-border strikes with minimal risk.
Shifting Doctrine
This operation marks a significant shift from the traditional doctrine of “strategic restraint” to “assertive deterrence”—where India signals it will no longer wait passively after a terrorist provocation.
Global Reactions
The United States
The U.S. urged “maximum restraint” on both sides but indirectly backed India’s right to self-defense. It also called for immediate de-escalation.
China
China, a long-time ally of Pakistan, condemned the strikes but refrained from direct threats. Analysts believe Beijing is concerned about regional instability, especially given its investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Russia and the EU
Russia, traditionally friendly with both nations, offered to mediate, while the EU called for peace talks.
United Nations
The UN Secretary-General expressed “deep concern” and urged both countries to return to diplomacy to prevent further escalation.
What Do Experts Predict?
We spoke with military analysts, geopolitical strategists, and conflict resolution experts to understand what lies ahead.
Limited Conflict Followed by Ceasefire
This is considered the most likely outcome. India and Pakistan have had several military standoffs in the past, which often escalated quickly but were then defused through international pressure.
Prolonged Skirmishes
Some experts warn of an extended period of low-intensity conflict along the LoC—such as artillery exchanges, drone activity, and cyber warfare.
Full-Scale War
Though unlikely, a full-blown war cannot be entirely ruled out, especially if either side miscalculates. The fact that both countries possess nuclear weapons adds a terrifying dimension to this possibility.
Diplomatic Reboot
Optimists hope that the crisis could force both nations to re-engage in meaningful dialogue over long-standing issues like Kashmir, water-sharing, and cross-border terrorism.
The Nuclear Shadow
Perhaps the most worrying factor in any India-Pakistan conflict is the nuclear overhang. Both countries have second-strike capabilities, and their nuclear doctrines differ:
- India follows a “No First Use” policy.
- Pakistan maintains ambiguity, hinting it might use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened.
This imbalance increases the risk of miscalculation. Many experts argue that the real danger isn’t deliberate nuclear war but accidental escalation—where conventional skirmishes spiral out of control.
Public Sentiment on Both Sides
India
Nationalist fervor surged across India after the strikes. Social media lit up with hashtags like #IndiaStrikesBack and #JaiHind, and politicians across party lines praised the military’s “surgical precision.”
Pakistan
On the other side, Pakistan’s media portrayed India as the aggressor, and the government rallied public support by invoking national defense. Anti-India protests broke out in major cities, and the Pakistani military enjoyed a boost in domestic credibility.
The risk here is that public pressure on both sides could trap leaders into hardline positions, making diplomacy politically costly.
The Road to De-Escalation
Experts recommend the following steps to prevent further conflict:
- Establish a direct military hotline between air commands to prevent accidental dogfights.
- Resume backchannel diplomacy, possibly through third parties like the UAE or Russia.
- Reinforce the 2003 ceasefire agreement with new protocols on airspace violations and artillery usage.
- Jointly investigate the Pulwama attack to build trust.
- Start dialogue on counter-terrorism cooperation, even if informal.
Most importantly, both countries need to lower the volume of nationalist rhetoric and reframe peace as a strategic strength, not weakness.
Frequently Asked Question
Why did India launch airstrikes on Pakistan?
India cited intelligence about an impending terrorist attack planned by groups based in Pakistan. The airstrikes were intended to disrupt those operations and act as a deterrent.
Did the airstrikes lead to civilian casualties?
India claims it targeted only terrorist camps and avoided civilian areas. Pakistan alleges civilian deaths occurred, but independent verification is difficult due to restricted access.
Has Pakistan retaliated?
Yes. Pakistan launched its own airstrikes across the LoC within 24 hours of India’s operation. Both countries also scrambled jets, leading to a brief aerial confrontation.
Is there a risk of nuclear war?
The risk exists, but experts believe both countries are aware of the devastating consequences. Still, accidental escalation due to miscommunication remains a serious concern.
What is the international community doing to help?
Countries like the U.S., China, Russia, and organizations like the UN are urging restraint. Some have offered to mediate or facilitate dialogue.
Will this conflict impact global markets or oil prices?
Geopolitical instability in South Asia could affect investor confidence, disrupt supply chains, and cause regional economic ripples. Oil prices could rise if broader regional instability occurs.
What can be done to prevent future escalations?
Both countries need better communication, confidence-building measures, and sustained dialogue. Addressing root causes like terrorism and the Kashmir dispute is critical for long-term peace.
Conclusion
India’s airstrikes on Pakistan represent a defining moment in the volatile relationship between two nuclear-armed neighbors. While the immediate threat of full-scale war appears to be receding, the strategic and emotional wounds remain fresh. What’s next depends on how both nations choose to manage their rivalry: Will they escalate through repeated provocations and military posturing, or pivot toward diplomacy and risk reduction?
